The Liberal Democrats are threatening to pull off a dramatic win in Labour’s Poplar and Limehouse stronghold in next week’s General Election, recent polls suggest.
Andrew Cregan, the Liberal Democrat candidate who defected from Corbyn’s party in 2014, is tipped to challenge Labour’s historical domination of the east London seat, a safe seat for Labour since the 1920s.
A recent poll of voting intentions in the election by Flavible Politics shows Cregan’s Lib Dems push forward with 31 per cent of the vote, up from seven per cent in 2017’s General Election. The poll also shows Labour’s 67 per cent of the vote in 2017 falling to 38 per cent.
| PREDICTION | Rounded 2017 results | |
| LABOUR | 38% | 67% |
| LIBERAL DEMOCRAT | 31% | 7% |
| CONSERVATIVE | 12% | 20% |
| BREXIT | 10% | 2% |
| GREEN | 6% | N/A |
Data estimated by Flavible Politics
Cregan said to EastLondonLines: “The Labour party has consistently failed to come to grips with the anti-Semitism within their ranks, and Tower Hamlets is an example of this”.
He also criticised the Labour party for their stance on Europe, and cited this as one of the main reasons for leaving the party: “I think it’s pathetic, the way that Corbyn has handled things with Brexit. They can’t make their mind up… the Labour party aren’t fit to run a bath, let alone a country.”
These figures are backed up by recent YouGov polling, which also shows nationally the Liberal Democrats are gaining momentum, although to a less significant extent.
| Party: | Voting Intention Estimates: | Seat Estimates: |
| Conservative | 43% | 359 |
| Labour | 32% | 211 |
| Liberal Democrat | 14% | 13 |
| Brexit Party | 3% | 0 |
| Green Party | 3% | 1 |
Data estimated by YouGov
In the last month, allegations have been levied against Labour candidate Apsana Begum, which she has denied.
Despite this surge for the Lib Dems, Begum is still set to succeed the current incumbent Jim Fitzpatrick MP who has held the seat since 2010, but announced he would not be seeking re-election this year.
Cregan told Eastlondonlines: “There have been inroads made into [Labour’s] majority, but we’ll see how it plays out on the night”.
A spokesperson for the London Labour Party told Eastlondonlines: ‘The Lib Dems got 7% in 2017, so the idea that they can win Poplar and Limehouse is pure fantasy politics. We’re running a great campaign in the constituency and Apsana will make a fantastic MP – we can’t wait to see her elected.”
2017 General Election results:
| Party: | Candidate: | Votes: | Majority: | Swing: |
| Labour | Jim Fitzpatrick | 39,558 | 67.3% | +8.7 |
| Conservative | Chris Wilford | 11,846 | 20.1% | -5.3 |
| Liberal Democrats | Elaine Bagshaw | 3,959 | 6.7% | +2.5 |
| Green Party | Bethan Lant | 989 | 1.7% | -3.1 |
| UKIP | Nicholas McQueen | 849 | 1.4% | -4.7 |
| Independent | David Barker | 136 | 0.2 | N/A |
