By Alice Bourne and Ed Holt

London’s political landscape could change as a result of proposed boundary alterations which have been released for public consultation ahead of a future election.

Within Eastlondonline’s four boroughs, Tower Hamlets and Croydon will be most affected with both likely to gain a new constituency, with one gain each for Labour and Conservatives.

According to a report by Boundary Commission for England, Tower Hamlets would get one new constituency, taking the total to three, and Croydon would get a single new constituency following boundary changes to the existing ones. Hackney and Lewisham will see only minor changes to their boundaries.

The proposed dividing up of constituency boundaries reflects population changes in the electorate, designed to balance out the number of electors within each constituency.

Boundary Commission for England said: “We are consulting on our revised proposals for a four-week period, from November 8 to December 5. We encourage everyone to use this final opportunity to contribute to the design of the new constituencies – the more views we hear, the more informed our decisions will be.”

Tower Hamlets

The plans that seek to divide Tower Hamlets into three constituencies will likely grant Labour an extra seat in the new Stratford and Bow Borough Constituency.

Currently, there are two parliamentary constituencies in the borough that have been in place since 2010: Poplar and Limehouse Constituency and Bethnal Green and Bow Constituency. Both are Labour seats sat by Apsana Begum and Rushanara Ali, respectively.

According to the Office for National Statistics: “In Tower Hamlets, the population size has increased by 22.1%, from around 254,100 in 2011 to 310,300 in 2021. This is higher than the overall increase for England (6.6%), where the population grew by nearly 3.5 million to 56,489,800”.

The proposed changes mean there will be an even population range of 73,849 to 77,000 between the three constituencies.

Stop City Airport on Twitter responded to the proposal: “We need less MPs and local councillors, not more.”

Another Twitter user said: “Crap, crap, crap! Boundary Changes means my constituency Tower Hamlets Poplar will be part of Newham Canning Town!”

Croydon

While Labour looks set to benefit from boundary changes in Tower Hamlets, Croydon could return more seats for the Conservatives.

Out of the existing seats, Croydon South, Croydon North and Croydon Central, only Croydon South has survived the boundary commission.

Following the proposed boundary changes to three existing constituencies, their new names will be: Croydon East and Croydon West and South Norwood.  

A fourth new constituency shared with neighbouring Lambeth, Streatham and Norbury, called Streatham and Norbury, would also be created under the proposals.

Currently, two out of the three constituencies are held by Labour, while Croydon South is considered a “Tory safe seat”.

Based on the result of this year’s council elections, under these new boundaries, a General Election could produce a different outcome.

Under the plans, Streatham and Norbury would be a Labour-safe seat and Croydon South would remain a Tory stronghold.

The Croydon West and South Norwood constituency would lean towards Labour. Labour would need to focus on the Waddon ward of the constituency, where the Conservatives gained a councillor in 2022 to retain the seat.

Croydon East will be the most competitive seat, with a strong Labour vote in the ward of New Addington and a strong Tory vote in Selsdon and most others.

If the 2022 council results were replicated, Croydon East would have a Tory MP.

The Conservatives and Labour have locked horns over the issue of the Croydon East constituency, with Labour opposing and the Tories supporting.

The Boundary Commission justification is that Croydon is “mathematically entitled to 3.46 constituencies” meaning the constituencies need to be redrawn.

A spokesperson for the Boundary Commission stressed that the organisation is “independent and impartial and does not take into account patterns of voting or the results of elections when reviewing constituency boundaries.” Their focus is simply making sure every seat has roughly 70,000 constituents.

Lewisham & Hackney

Compared to Tower Hamlets and Croydon, Lewisham and Hackney constituencies have seen relatively small changes to their boundaries.

Lewisham has two newly named constituencies: Lewisham North and Deptford and Lewisham West and East Dulwich which includes parts of Southwark including parts of Peckham. These newly named seats reflect only minor changes on the electoral map.

Hackney’s two existing constituencies of Hackney North and Stoke Newington and Hackney South and Shoreditch remain relatively unchanged. The neighbourhood of De Beauvoir which is currently within Hackney South, has been transferred to the adjacent Islington South seat. Likewise, the areas of Brownswood and Woodberry down will be transferred form Hackney North to Tottenham.

The boundary changes proposed by the Commission will come into effect at the next General Election, scheduled to be held no later than January 2025.